Pointing at an Upswing ?????

In my earlier post, I had indicated that there were evident indicators that the stock market was oversold. Around that time financial wise-guys on renowned TV channels were predicting to see the markets increase by over 25….Now, approximately 30 days later, the S&P500 has increased by 26% and the Dow Jones Industrial Averages has increased by 24.5%. Today’s sell off with flu fear doesn’t really indicate much of anything …A major portions of these gains were allocated in financial services, technology, large cap and small cap growth stocks, consumer retail, basic materials, international emerging markets and high yield bonds. Although fact remains that through April 13, 2009, the Dow Jones is down about 8% and the S&P500 Index has declined by approximately 5%. The often asked question is whether we have seen the bottom of the market earlier in the year, and now will move forward or if this is a bear market rally. The stock market has had several rallies so far this year exceeding 20% gains only to give it all back and establish new lows. No one can attempt to predict the market unless you are a fortune teller (I am starting to believe that theory now) But by adapting to the changing trends has potential to the greatest probability of success. Is it time to move offense onto the field and increasing the equity allocation???? That’s the million dollar questions. We are yet to see if the bulls start running all over again and bears take the shield. But it certainly possible that market will hover around 8000 range for good amount of time ahead. Gold has shown a strong resistance at 1000 level. Not a long ago a number of analysts were predicting Gold to make it to $2000. it almost looks like oil at $200 type of scenario. Somehow for last several months Gold has not managed to move out 800-900 range and it’s not looking very promising to go beyond that in near future. And then there is Oil. Not much surprise that oil is starting to climb up not as much as last year but up with summer approaching.. Funny how it always has an upswing beginning of summer year after year. There is more to it than just supply /demand price adjustment but for couple more months, Oil will have its good days of the year.. I personally hope the flu news doesn’t take the wind out of sail. But we will have to watch and see. For now, a number of indicators including better than expected earnings from several corporations give an optimism of upswing. And we need that more than anything. Too much prolonged depressing news is not good for anyone’s well being. We have to plough through these pockets of good news and keep going…!!!!!