Let's Start Fresh

Every morning gives you an opportunity and every evening asks you what you did with that opportunity? I think no day is bad day or a good day. Our attitude determines whether it will be good or bad… And to great extent, how we wake up every morning determines our mood and attitude for that day. So, I think that the very first few minutes while we are waking up are very precious. I decided to switch our alarm clock for the same reason. Instead of waking up to the loud alarm, we decided to use musical buzzer. Its soothing and refreshing musical tunes wake you up lightly, happily instead of abruptly. (of course, you can’t savor it for too long, the music gets louder if you don’t wake up in time) To a great extent, it helped me set the tone of the day on a good note. My sister suggested adding Eau De cologne in the shower. Yet another simple but powerful idea to change the tone of the day. Now everyday quick bath is not boring anymore. I breathe a sense of refreshing air along the way. I have noticed that a refreshed mind opens up to new ideas and optimism and that’s what we need. When we decide to do anything, we have to put our heart in it. It may be a small thing or big project. Our creativity and efforts will largely determine the outcome of it. But sometimes, we try very sincerely, earnestly, with 100 % efforts but we fail to get the anticipated results. Such situations are disheartening. But we have to believe that it’s a short term failure. We shouldn’t get discouraged. We shouldn’t abandon our efforts either. Otherwise it leads to panic. One starts blaming others for their own failure. If few tasks out of several don’t get done, why blame the entire day? Besides, if we look back, there may have been something good hidden beneath those bad days. We just didn’t realize it at that very moment. Lets find out what those good things were. There is no point in dwelling too much over what all went wrong. One certainly should try to analyze the causes of the failure. Maybe our approach is wrong or the maybe we didn’t realize the whole picture and missed few things along the way. There are certain lessons we can learn from our failures. It’s possible to avoid certain mistakes and restart again. Tomorrow brings in a new day. An opportunity to start all over again. After all, mind blowing results are rooted in fresh mind and smart ideas. So let’s not dwell on having a bad day. Just forget it and move on!

Trifecta

Investors around the world are scrambling to find a safe haven for returns. Unfortunately in current situation there seems to be no right instrument to earn solid positive returns. In addition, the conventional wisdom is proving to be against investor community. The Stock markets around the globe are down at historic proportions including free fall in real estate prices, so are crude and oil prices and so are Gold and precious metal prices. Historically, the gold and the oil prices moved inversely with the stock. That helped many investors to eke out some gains in bad market. This time around Stocks, Oil and Gold are going hand in hand. Interdependencies across the world are bringing everything down and there seems to be no end in sight. So emerging markets are no longer safe havens neither are matured markets…..Gone are the days when the Dow was to touch 20000, Oil was to reach 200/barrel and Gold was to reach 2000. Pessimism is bad for everyone but just like millions other, I am looking for a ray of hope. I am sure the things will improve but sooner the better. While such gloomy scenario continues, I was happy to see a silver lining for someone who I care about deeply. My friend changed his job last year. He left Satyam (way before it collapsed) and joined Chase Bank (one of the “chosen” banks which Fed will save under any circumstances) Along the way, he turned down excellent job offers at Lehman Brothers and Nortel Networks (of course, excellent per standards of year ago) I am so glad all the lucky star were lined up for my friend who chose Chase over all other three. May you keep winning my friend ! And we will score hat trick gains of stock, gold and oil…

Satyam Saga

Just when we thought we learnt a lesson from Enron, another corporate scandal rolls in. This time, its Satyam Computers-Indian Software conglomerate. The truth is corporate greed doesn’t have national boundaries. The small investors remain with leftover pieces of puzzle and business schools get another case study. Sadly not much more happens after such mind blowing scams… Enron was cooking its books for years and Arthur Anderson; its independent auditors overlooked it for years. The collapse of the Enron caused the collapse of the AA and we were left with Big 4 instead of Big 5. Sarbanes-Oxley Act rolled in. All corporations made a big push for Corporate Governance and Control. It seemed that, finally, the corporate books were trying to look clean. Now the Satyam scandal bursts that bubble of trust all over again. This time it’s Price WaterHouse Coopers. Its auditors failed to do their due diligence and Satyam Owners could commit fraud of mind blowing proportions.

The internet has got the globe connected and world economies have become even more interdependent. So just overlooking the Satyam as Indian IT scam is a mistake. Its global implications are enormous. The Auditors ought to be independent no matter what. The auditing standards should be same across the world. We need to stop having different sets of regulations and accounting standards for different nations. One set of standards should govern the universe. The punishment for all those involved in such scam should be as strict as possible. In this global economy, the word transparency should hold its meaning. The PWC is just as responsible for assisting the scam as much as the founders who did it.

The corporate ethics demand the need of separation of duties and tight audit controls for all publicly traded corporations. With Sarbanes-Oxley act, these rules were reinstated in USA. It was a major undertaking for US corporations to reassure their confidence after Enron scam. The same should be applicable for all companies traded on American Stock Exchange. The worldwide recession has already given a major blow to the investor confidence. Such scandals make it worse. Indian Software companies are going to learn it the hard way. Just competing on the price differential is not enough. Quality, commitment and assurance are essential parts of winning equation. Sadly, all of these three values came in doubt after Satyam Scam. Once lost, it’s very hard to restore the trust and confidence. The effects of Satyam collapse therefore are far more than just monetary numbers. In a negations class, I remember learning “its ok to loose a deal but not ok loose your trust and Goodwill’. Sadly, that trust is once again lost ……..

Big Cow Wins !

So… here are the results of the Dow Jones year end close predictions . Thank you so much to all my buddies who responded to my earlier post. I know this year, it was very tough to guess the wild Dow Jones Industrial Average. No one had predicted such a sharp fall of worldwide economies. We were aware of the presidential election year disasters of the past. There were enough indictors pointing to the economic slowdown. But this time it turned out to be lot more than that. The Congress, the President (elect and elected) and the business leaders tried to rectify previous mess but it was too little too late. The world economies are dwindling between recession and deflation and most everyone is looking hopelessly at it.

I pray that the New Year brings in the peace and prosperity to all. We all more than deserve that. After all, all human beings are optimistic creatures and we will pull out of it. If we can ride this wave, who is to stop us ?

For the facts, here are the numbers

Jan 2, 2008 Dow closed at 13043

Dec. 31, 2008 Dow Closed at 8776

At its Highest of the year Dow was at 13137 and at its lowest it had reached 7449.

AND NOW THE WINNER IS: ( let the drum roll begin)

PATYA at 8700 !!!!

You go girl !!! +/- 50 is allowed but you came the closest. So you are hereby declared the 2008 BIG COW (like BIG BULL) of the stock market…….